|
熱帶氣旋 > 厄爾尼諾-南方濤動動態 [更新] [English]
 實時南方濤動指數 |
資料來源：請按此。此南方濤動指數是由1887至1989年的基數計算所得。資料每天 (公眾假期除外) 在澳洲東部標準時間下午2時更新一次。
| 日期 | 大溪地之氣壓 (百帕) | 達爾文之氣壓 (百帕) | 每天數值 | 30天平均南方濤動指數 | 90天平均南方濤動指數 |
| 4-07-2009 | 1014.95 | 1013.70 | 1.85 (-1.1) | -1.46 (+0.24) | -0.12 (-0.02) |
| 3-07-2009 | 1014.03 | 1012.60 | 2.95 (-7.45) | -1.70 (+0.26) | -0.10 (+0.02) |
| 2-07-2009 | 1014.74 | 1012.10 | 10.40 (-2.22) | -1.96 (+0.55) | -0.12 (+0.03) |
| 1-07-2009 | 1015.85 | 1012.85 | 12.62 (-8.96) | -2.51 (+0.27) | -0.15 (+/-0.00) |
| 30-06-2009 | 1016.46 | 1012.10 | 21.58 (-11.04) | -2.78 (+0.12) | -0.15 (+0.05) |
| 29-06-2009 | 1016.68 | 1010.75 | 32.62 (-2.25) | -2.90 (+0.51) | -0.20 (+0.42) |
| 28-06-2009 | 1016.90 | 1010.65 | 34.87 (+3.59) | -3.41 (+0.63) | -0.62 (+0.41) |
| 厄爾尼諾-南方濤動報告 (只提供英文版，來源請按此) |
CURRENT
STATUS as at 1st July 2009
Next update expected by 8th July 2009 (one week after this update).
Summary: El Niño event likely
More evidence of a developing El Niño event has emerged during the past fortnight, and computer forecasts show there's very little chance of the development stalling or reversing.
Responding to continued weak Trade Winds, equatorial sea-surface temperatures are now more than 1°C above normal in the eastern half of the Pacific. Although it has risen in the past fortnight, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains below zero at around −2.
A more complete picture of the situation in Pacific will be available next week when the final June indices are calculated.
El Niño events are usually (but not always) associated with below normal rainfall in the second half of the year across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia.
Another adverse sign for southeastern Australian rainfall is the recent trend to positive values in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as measured by the Dipole Mode Index (DMI).
See IOD forecasts, DMI values.
In Brief
- The Pacific Ocean sea surface is currently significantly warmer than the long-term average across most of the tropical Pacific, especially central to eastern areas.
- A large amount of the sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific is also warmer than the long-term average, particularly in the east.
- The latest 30-day SOI value is −2, while the monthly value for May was −5.
- Trade winds remain weaker than normal across the central equatorial Pacific.
- Cloudiness near the date-line is near-normal, and is yet to show a consistent trend towards El Niño conditions.
- All international climate models predict the tropical Pacific to continue to warm and to be above El Niño thresholds throughout most of the second half of 2009.
最近訪問日期: Sat Jul 04 2009 13:45:44 HKT
最近修訂日期: Tue Jun 23 2009
|
Statistics |
